Friday, February 6, 2009

Will Mr. Bernanke continue following the monetary policies of Zimbabwe???

I am tired of socialism for the rich and capitalism for the poor. It is an incredibly difficult time to be an investor right now. There are so many moving parts. All negative and the government is involved in each.

In a nutshell, after 2001 interest rates were to low for too long giving incentive to people to take risk. The major investment banks were on board as usual this time selling bundles of mortgages and credit card debt. A whole new market for credit default swaps was created. Debt rose to never before witnessed levels and finally the music stopped in 07 and the bankers went scrambling for their chairs. In Nov libor was 750 basis points. Capitalism was in cardiac arrest.

The proper thing to do at the time would have been to nationalize the banks. Wipe out the shareholders, keep the good assets and shed the bad assets at distressed prices. That however requires pain something nobody wants. As a result, the opposite happened and a 700 billion TARP fund was created to address a problem requiring trillions. Over half of TARP 1 has been squandered.

Now we have Obama in office. He has Volcker who is qualified. The problem isn't in the leaders its the system. Obama promised everyone and their brother something to get elected. Nobody in Washington wants to sacrifice. Everyone has a special interest group lobbying on their behalf. The current fiscal stimulus proposal is loaded with back ended government programs that won't have an impact for at least 18 months.

Policy makers have created the sense of urgency we are now experiencing by slowly throwing money on a fire that got completely out of control because they weren't watching it in the first place.

I am confident America will come through this because of loyal taxpayers like myself and the Chinese government who whether they like it or not are inextricably tied to America. The US policy makers actions may ease the pain near term but will likely limit long term growth and produce drastic inflation and higher taxes down the road.

In the words of my mentor On We Go...

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