I think there are some lucrative opportunities in merger arb as a result of panic selling/hedge fund deleveraging. I found the following article on seeking alpha:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/104853-merger-arbitrage-mania-four-opportunities?source=yahoo
I am currently long PSD.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Dead Parrot Sketch
Dead Parrot Sketch is one of my favorites. Thought I would share it with everyone.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vuW6tQ0218
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vuW6tQ0218
Wittgenstein quote
Came across this quote in a book where Wittgenstein after asserting "that the meaning of life, i.e. the meaning of the world, we can call God," he offers the following reflections:
Dostoievsky is right when he say that man who is happy is fulfilling the purpose of existence.
Or again we could say that the man is fulfilling the purpose of existence who no longer needs to have any purpose except to live. That is to say, who is content.
The solution of the problem of life is to be seen in the disappearance of this problem....
Dostoievsky is right when he say that man who is happy is fulfilling the purpose of existence.
Or again we could say that the man is fulfilling the purpose of existence who no longer needs to have any purpose except to live. That is to say, who is content.
The solution of the problem of life is to be seen in the disappearance of this problem....
Monday, November 17, 2008
Ed Hyman on the Economy
We're lowering our 4Q real GDP estimate from -4.0% to -5.0% due to 1) weaker than expected Oct data for employment, the PMIs, and retail sales, 2) the continued weakness in ISI's company surveys in Nov, 3) the uncertainty surrounding the Big 3 automakers (bad for car sales), and 4) the reduced visibility of an immediate stimulus package. Policy is in a bit of a transition vacuum. We're lowering our 1Q and 2Q real GDP estimates to -3.0% and -1.0% due to negative global momentum and the lagged effects of the credit strains still creating recession conditions, eg, junk bond yields hit a record 19.25% last week. We then have just 1% to 2% growth for the rest of 2009. These estimates suggest the unemployment rate moves up to 9.0% by the end of 2009 or early 2010 (another jobless recovery).
What's Needed to Stop the GDP Decline
There's a feeling the plunge in GDP must be arrested -- and not in two years. These are 7 things that would probably do it, although it will take time:
1. A $500 billion fiscal stimulus package.
2. Gasoline prices stay around $2.00.
3. Global short rates, which have come down almost -50 bp over the past three months, keep declining -50 bp every three months.
4. The Fed 's balance sheet expanding to $3 trillion and M2 growth of 10%.
5. Mtg rates, latest 6.08%, declining to 5.00%.
6. More streamlining of mortgages in favor of homeowners.
7. LIBOR declining to 1.25%.
In our view, none of these 7 is farfetched.
Personal reflection on Ed Hyman's comments:
It has been my view for some time that things will get much worse before they get better. Hyman's comments reinforce that view. However everyone except maybe Larry Kudlow has come to that realization that the economy is in serious trouble. Panic is widespread. The question before the house... Is the suffering ahead of us priced into the equity markets?
I was lucky to put 40% of my portfolio in cash while the DOW was at 1150. I think it might be time to begin taking advantage for the long run....
What's Needed to Stop the GDP Decline
There's a feeling the plunge in GDP must be arrested -- and not in two years. These are 7 things that would probably do it, although it will take time:
1. A $500 billion fiscal stimulus package.
2. Gasoline prices stay around $2.00.
3. Global short rates, which have come down almost -50 bp over the past three months, keep declining -50 bp every three months.
4. The Fed 's balance sheet expanding to $3 trillion and M2 growth of 10%.
5. Mtg rates, latest 6.08%, declining to 5.00%.
6. More streamlining of mortgages in favor of homeowners.
7. LIBOR declining to 1.25%.
In our view, none of these 7 is farfetched.
Personal reflection on Ed Hyman's comments:
It has been my view for some time that things will get much worse before they get better. Hyman's comments reinforce that view. However everyone except maybe Larry Kudlow has come to that realization that the economy is in serious trouble. Panic is widespread. The question before the house... Is the suffering ahead of us priced into the equity markets?
I was lucky to put 40% of my portfolio in cash while the DOW was at 1150. I think it might be time to begin taking advantage for the long run....
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Long FMCN, watch out!
I purchased FMCN at the beginning of the summer around $30 a share. It closed Friday at $6.99. I am inclined to buy more considering much of the pressure is likely a result of hedge funds rushing to the exits. I need to dig deeper however as I am unsure about the management.
The Jefferson Bible
I just started reading The Jefferson Bible. I consider myself agnostic. However recently like many my people my age, I have been asking the Why? question with more frequency. So I began reading the New Testament but even that is a little to much for me to digest. So I figure I will start with Jefferson's rational version of the New Testament and move up from there. If you feel so inclined you may find it at:
http://www.angelfire.com/co/JeffersonBible/
http://www.angelfire.com/co/JeffersonBible/
Thomas Jefferson believed that the ethical system of Jesus was the finest the world has ever seen. In compiling what has come to be called "The Jefferson Bible," he sought to separate those ethical teachings from the religious dogma and other supernatural elements that are intermixed in the account provided by the four Gospels. He presented these teachings, along with the essential events of the life of Jesus, in one continuous narrative.
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